I appreciate the spirit of the entire enterprise of predicting weather as fruitless and fraught with peril as it usually is. I look outside and see it's raining even as the weather report says it's currently partly cloudy. Forecasts diminish in accuracy the further out the time horizon is, but should be almost perfect in real-time. I've resorted to thinking a weather rock might help me plan my day just as well. If the rock outside my window is dry, it's not raining. If it's wet, it is. If it's white, it's snowing and if it's gone, altogether, it's windy. It's a joke that contains an uncomfortable truth about how our strategy brains work. And don't.